The euro has not reached the bottom… the decline will continue. After crossing the “next red line”, that of 92 lek, the European currency is expected to roll further. If not by the end of this year, within next spring, experts predict the euro to be below 90 lek.
Ergis Sefa, an economic expert, says: “Based on the signals we are receiving from the market, we expect the euro to find an equilibrium point around 90 lek. In a more extreme scenario, we could also see levels around 87 lek, but this is not the scenario we would like to see materialize. From tourists, Albanian emigrants living in European countries, exports of goods and foreign investments, 8.27 billion euros were brought into Albania in the first half of the year.”
Such a high amount of euros also weakened the interventions of the Bank of Albania in the foreign exchange market.
“Over 1.7 billion euros have been withdrawn. Imagine if this amount had not been withdrawn. We have a combination of factors that are increasing the supply of foreign exchange in the market. Tourism is one of them, but we should not forget the inflows from emigrants, exports and investments. When these foreign exchange resources enter the economy for a short period, the pressure to strengthen the lek becomes natural.”
“Of course! Market, supply and demand. As in almost every other activity, the exchange rate also moves within this triangle. But are these the only factors that have led to the “destruction” of the euro and other currencies?”, continues the expert.
“No, we cannot explain everything only with the mechanism of supply and demand. There are also other factors related to the structure of the Albanian economy, market expectations and the way economic actors react to this strengthening of the lek. Therefore, we need to see whether we are dealing with a temporary phenomenon or a trend that could last,” says Sefa.
Due to the methodology in the foreign exchange rate, other major currencies in the country are also depreciating against the “superlek”. The dollar is being exchanged for an average of 81 lek, the pound for less than 107 lek, while the Swiss Franc has fallen to 97 lek for the first time in history.