The scenarios for the successor and the fight for the throne…
The Prime Minister is considering strengthening a number two, announcing the date of his departure and bringing back old SP figures, while any move risks igniting rebellion within the majority…
Edi Rama has delayed announcing changes to his government and, in all likelihood, is reluctant to do so on August 25th.
In Pogradec, the prime minister is expected to announce in concrete terms his platform of “reflection.” As it is learned, the surveys and intensive negotiations he has conducted during this period have shown him that none of the moves used so far will produce the effect he seeks.
This time, the majority leader finds himself in completely different circumstances. He no longer has a chess move at his disposal that could get the “queen” out of danger, that is, the piece with the greatest room for maneuver.
After the outbreak of the protests, Edi Rama has entered a position where any move could put him in front of an “exposed chess piece”.
A simple cabinet makeover could produce an even more incendiary effect than the Zvërnec dragnet incident. Society saw that event as an arrogant reaction by the government. Now, expectations are tied to how the government will respond to mass discontent.
Society expects transformation, not makeover. This expectation is shared, first and foremost, by the socialists themselves, within whom several factors that had long remained silent have awakened.
A survey conducted by people close to the government among the SP membership concluded that any importation of new “technocrats” into the cabinet, or democrats dissatisfied with Sali Berisha, could produce an even more corrosive effect and provoke a new rebellion.
Rama is faced with a Shakespearean dilemma, in the truest sense of the word: to be or not to be. Discontents and expectations are being driven by a new reality, where for the first time even within the SP, a future without the beard and white sneakers of the “global leader” is being contemplated.
In this situation, Rama, who works with advisors who analyze every possible poll, is considering several scenarios.
The first scenario envisages the appointment of a strong deputy prime minister with broad support within the SP. He would assume the role of executive prime minister, while Rama would deal mainly with “big” foreign policy.
The name of this consensual deputy prime minister has not yet been determined, but negotiations are underway to find an acceptable figure. It could be a person who could come from the leadership of one of the main municipalities, or a minister who Rama has strongly promoted during this period and who has led a municipality until the 2025 elections.
The logic of this movement is based on the separation of powers. Rama would partially retreat into the shadows, while the number two would receive more powers. The latter would serve both as a lightning rod and as a shock absorber for popular discontent.
The second scenario foresees Rama announcing a precise date for his departure on August 25th.
This maneuver could temporarily calm the anti-Rama political base, giving it the certainty that the prime minister will leave. But it could also have the opposite effect: since he is leaving, let’s give him the upper hand. In this way, Rama can further fuel what is increasingly being called the “October Revolution.”
The majority leader is likely to use a revised version of the first scenario, combined with elements of the second scenario. He may also present the possible successor.
Such a scheme would create a new political intrigue. The parties would be more concerned with the figure of the successor than with Rama himself.
However, this time a new phenomenon has emerged. Rama has encountered the lack of willingness of some figures in the majority to become part of a joint project.
These days, it is learned that important figures from the older generation of the Socialist Party have appeared at the government residence in Dhërmi. Among them are names known as opponents of Edi Rama.
In the majority’s halls, there is also talk of Pandeli Majko’s return to the new government team or to the structure that Rama intends to create as the “Guardians of Besa”. Majko’s appearances in the media close to Rama during these days have been interpreted as a signal for a move after August 25.
However, it is still unclear what role Majko could take. He could be appointed deputy prime minister and negotiate with Edi Rama’s left-wing opponents, mainly in Europe, but also with Vetëvendosje. He could serve as a figurehead for a transitional government according to a known variant, or as part of a hybrid scheme.
The situation in the corridors of the majority remains unclear and in constant flux. Within the SP, dreams of starting an internal war for the throne of the “Sultan” have begun to return./Pamphlet