A day after US President Donald Trump declared the Strait of Hormuz “open,” officials within his administration are raising their forecasts for oil and gasoline prices as “restrictions” block the flow of energy through that critical waterway.
The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) now expects energy transit through the Strait of Hormuz to remain limited until August.
The EIA raised its 2026 average price for Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, to $87 a barrel on Tuesday. That’s up from a forecast of $82 a month ago for Brent and close to current levels.
Officials now expect retail gasoline prices to average $3.78 per gallon this year, up from a previous forecast of $3.64 per gallon. According to AAA, gasoline prices were just $2.98 per gallon nationally before the war began.
Forecasters also raised their estimates for oil and gasoline prices for 2027. This pressure on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that usually allows a fifth of the world’s oil to flow through, led the EIA to increase its forecast for how much Middle Eastern oil production will be offline in the coming months.
The prediction stands in stark contrast to Trump’s own comments. Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday that the strait is “open now” and that only the United States Navy has control over the waterway.
Only eight ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, compared to an average of 120 before the war, according to maritime intelligence firm Kpler.