Albania has entered a severe period of demographic developments, ranking in the top four countries in the world in terms of shrinking youth population, at least until 2050.
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The alarming situation was reflected in a recent document on youth from the Population Division of the United Nations, which states that Albania is expected to lose almost 43% of the 15-24 age group from 2025-2050.
In 2000, Albania counted over half a million young people (544 thousand), while after two and a half decades, this figure will reach only 195 thousand, putting the country’s economic and social existence in doubt.
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The United Nations notes that out of 225 countries in the world, Albania ranks third after China and Ukraine for the shrinking number of young people in the next three decades.
The global comparison puts Albania in a worse position than even Japan or Italy, the world’s symbols of aging. While Japan is losing only 28% of its youth, Albania is doing so at a rate almost twice as fast, burning through demographic milestones that have taken other nations centuries, according to UN data.
The deterioration becomes even more aggressive because young people will become a very small group in relation to the total population. In 2000, Albania led Europe in terms of young population, with 15-24 year olds accounting for 17.2% of the total population.
In 2025, they accounted for only 13.6%, while in 2050 they are expected to be only 11.3%, according to UN projections. This decline places Albania in the red zone of countries that are consuming the future before it arrives.
National studies have verified that the shrinking number of young people has emigration as a fundamental factor, which then narrows the birth base for the coming decades.
Professor Ilir Gëdeshi, who has been studying demographic phenomena and emigration in our country for years, recently published research on current emigration trends.
Mr. Gëdeshi says that new trends show that Albania has moved from a massive emigration motivated by survival to an increasingly selective and structural emigration, which is disproportionately affecting young people and the more educated segments of the population.
The consequences of this new immigration model, he said, are being reflected in the shrinking and aging population, the growing shortage of labor, especially skilled labor, the curbing of consumption, and the deepening of a number of social problems.
“It’s mainly young people who emigrate. There are two groups. There are some who, as soon as they finish high school, go to study. They go to Germany and Italy.
While those who graduate from university go to Germany. Those who are 18 years old and above go for university studies and never return, while those who graduate from university here get their diplomas and leave. This is a phenomenon”, – stated in “Study of Current Migration Trends in Albania” by Mr. Gëdeshi, Mirela, a lecturer in Vlora.
While many countries in Europe are maintaining balance through policies to attract immigrants, Albania is still playing the role of a donor of human resources.
The concern that arises is no longer how the economy will grow, but how our country will survive, which by 2050 will have lost half of today’s youth, causing Albania to face the most difficult test in its modern history.
If the trend is not reversed with urgent measures, the year 2050 will find Albania with empty schools, businesses without workers, and a society that is counting the last days of its vitality. / Taken with abbreviations from Monitor